John Kerry is too pessimistic, says the Bush administration. The economy, it insists, is booming, and voters are tired of hearing about negative assessments of the economy. With 8.2 million men and women officially listed as unemployed, however, it is difficult to say what we have to be optimistic about.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported last week that it had revised the number of people it counted as out of work - going back to April. Analysts and Bush administration officials originally believed that June would see a growth by 250,000. The economy actually produced less than half of that.
This jobs report came on the heels of a weak GDP report for the first three months of 2004. Falling far short of expectations, the GDP grew by an annual rate of only 3.5%, according to some analysts, much less than the same period the previous year when the economy was still mired in recession (or, for some, a jobless recovery).
Other signs of Bush's booming economy? Declining factory orders, no growth in personal income, flat manufacturing activity, higher consumer prices, high oil and gas prices are features of the Bush economy. Duration of unemployment averages nearly 20 weeks. The manufacturing sector lost 11,000 jobs. Employers are not expecting much from the current "recovery" and are refusing to make a lot of new hires.
Additionally, the jobs report also shows that in addition to the 8.2 million out of work, as many as 1.5 million ìmarginally attachedî workers haven't found employment in the last 12 months - 1/3 of which the bureau's report, in its characteristic bureaucratic lingo, describes as "discouraged." This figure is the same as a year ago.
Altogether, the government's own measure of "labor underutilization" (i. e. unemployed and part-time or temporary workers) counts about 14 million people. "Underutilization" doesn't measure the 7 million multiple jobholders who work more than one job (for more than forty hours per week) in order to make ends meet. On top of this, what little job growth that has happened in the last year hasn't kept pace with the numbers of new workers joining the workforce.
Though the overall unemployment rate held steady, African Americans and women saw sharp increases in joblessness. Latino and young workers continue to be hammered by the Bush economy.
So Kerry isn't the only one who is pessimistic about the Bush economy.
Wealthy Bush supporters might be tired of hearing about the impact Bush's policies are having on working people, but millions of unemployed and underemployed want to see a change. We need to go from tax cuts for the rich, massive spending on an unnecessary war and the military and deficits to real job investment, progressive taxes and an end to Bush's permanent war.
Full employment requires an instantaneous creation of over 14 million new jobs and at least 7 million more at pay living wages. Public works with targeted investments in predominantly Black and Latino populated communities are necessary.
Strengthened affirmative action (and, some argue, reparations) clearly would play a role in equalizing economic growth.
Workers are making this election a referendum on Bush - his war and his economy. Because we can expect Bush to follow his current do-nothing track, a real jobs program at a minimum requires a regime change in Washington on November 2nd.
--Joel Wendland is managing editor of Political Affairs. Send him your thoughts at jwendland@politicalaffairs.net.
