8-11-06, 1:45 pm

Analysis prepared by COHA Research Associate Tiffany Isaacs

U.S. uses its muscle in contest over whether Venezuela or Guatemala will get the Latin American non-permanent Council seat.

• The race is close but Caracas is likely to win.
• If so, it will represent a crushing defeat for State Department diplomacy.
• Washington probably has doomed Guatemalaís prospects to obtain a seat by smothering the effort with its preeminence in the campaign, unless, that is, Chávez commits a major gaff.
• Historically, Guatemala is the hemisphereís worst human rights violator, with thousands of atrocities never solved and many terms of the 1996 UN-brokered peace agreement never implemented.

The battle for a soon-to-be vacant non-permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council has turned into an all out diplomatic war, not so much between the ostensible contenders ó Venezuela and Guatemala ó but rather between the worldís premier superpower and one of its most outspoken critics. Washington and Caracas have begun a race to gather allies in the General Assembly before the UN vote takes place in October, as each side jockeys for the two-thirds majority needed to land the prestigious seat. Traditionally, the choice is left up to a regional caucus. However, since the Latin American nations are unlikely to produce a consensus candidate, the issue will undoubtedly go before the General Assembly. Meanwhile, all eyes are on Chile and several other Latin America states to see whether Washington will be successful in using its leverage to persuade its officials not to be ëlosersí (in the words of Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice) by voting for Venezuela. In this high energy political maneuvering, Washington is setting itself up for a diplomatic debacle that could trigger a backlash of tremendous proportions.



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