10-11-06, 9:00 a.m.
(The following article is from the October 1-15, 2006 issue of People's Voice, Canada's leading communist newspaper. Articles can be reprinted free if the source is credited. Subscription rates in Canada: $25/year, or $12 low income rate; for U.S. readers - $25 US per year; other overseas readers - $25 US or $35 CDN per year. Send to: People's Voice, c/o PV Business Manager, 173 West Ave. North, Hamilton, ON, L8L 5C7.)
A new study published by Ceasefire.ca has found that Canadian forces in Afghanistan are sustaining far higher death rates than U.S. occupation troops in Iraq.
The report was issued before the Sept. 18 killing of four Canadian soldiers by a suicide bomber in Kandahar. That brought the number of Canadian combat deaths in Afghanistan to 36.
Among the study's findings (up to early September):
Canada has sustained the second-highest number of military deaths (after The U.S..) as a result of hostile actions in Afghanistan since the original invasion in 2001. Since February 2006, when our troops began operations in Kandahar, Canada sustained 43% of all military deaths among U.S. allies in the coalition (20 of 47 non-U.S. deaths). When adjusted for the relative size of troop commitments, a Canadian soldier in Kandahar is nearly three times more likely to be killed in hostile action than a British solder, and 4.5 times more likely than an American soldier serving in Iraq. If the rate of deaths since February 2006 were to remain unchanged until the end of the mission in January 2009, the Canadian military would sustain another 108 deaths in Afghanistan, bringing the total to 140.
The study, by Steven Staples and Bill Robinson, notes that the Department of National Defence predicts the number of casualties that will be sustained by the Canadian Forces before undertaking new missions, but that these estimates are rarely discussed openly.
In one rare public disclosure, in June 2003 the National Post reported that military intelligence experts estimated that Canadian troops would likely suffer as many as 10 fatalities during their ensuing six-month tour of duty of troops in Kabul. The actual number of deaths sustained in the mission stood at three by January 2004, less than estimated.
But then, the relocation of Canadian Forces from the relative safety of Kabul to the unstable southern province was announced by Paul Martin's Liberal government on May 16, 2005. Both Defence Minister Bill Graham and Chief of Defence Staff Rick Hillier made public statements that this new mission would be more dangerous than previous missions in the country.
However, there is evidence to suggest that the military may have underestimated the level of violence Canadian troops would face, which would in turn affect any estimate of casualties.
For example, the Toronto Star reported on July 23, 2005, that Col. Steve Noonan, commander of Canada's Task Force Afghanistan, expected violence to increase leading up to the Sept. 18 national elections, but that he was 'confident that the rise in violence is the 'last gasps' of the insurgents.'
That assessment has proven completely wrong. From Jan. 1 through Sept. 18 of this year, 24 Canadian troops have died in the Afghan war, a far higher toll than in previous years. But instead of yielding to public demands to wind up its role in the occupation, the Conservative government has extended the mission to the end of January 2009, and to send hundreds more troops to Afghanistan.
From People's Voice
