11-17-05,9:02am

EVIDENCE of a possible severe health issue that could result in millions of deaths and provoke incalculable economic losses was presented at an international conference in Geneva regarding avian flu and the human flu pandemic.

Three Asian nations have detected new outbreaks of the disease in poultry just one day after health experts delineated a billion dollar world-wide plan to stop the propagation of the virus. So far the epizootic has been registered in 24 countries and regions. It is feared that its geographical distribution will expand.

China, Vietnam and Thailand said that they are discovered fresh outbreaks as the region approaches the northern winter season, which is when the H5N1 strain of the avian flu appears to intensify.

The severity of the situation was emphasized from the first day of the event by Lee Jong-Wook, secretary general of the World Health Organization (WHO).

'It is only a matter of time before the H5N1 virus is transformed into a serious human pathogen,' he warned.

'We don’t know when this is going to happen, but we know that it will,' he assured the 600 experts from international organizations, public and private entities and representatives of more than 100 countries attending the conference.

The danger of the threatening virus – discovered in Italy more than 100 years ago – resides in its capacity to mutate into various pathogenic forms.

The 'A' variety of the flu, one of the human transmittable varieties, appears to have been the cause of the brutal flu epidemics in the 20th century, such as the Spanish flu of 1918 that provoked far more deaths than World War I, which ended that same year.

The avian flu, a strain derived from the A variety, defined by the nomenclature H5N1, has already forced the slaughter of millions of birds throughout the world and has infected 120 individuals, of whom more than half have died.

Migratory birds, and in particular wild ducks, are important vectors of one form of the virus.

During the WHO meeting in Geneva, the Asian countries complained that they cannot access the antivirus because the rich nations are hoarding its production. More developed nations must resolve this situation because the danger of the pandemic is knocking at their door while the transnationals based in their countries are seeking to speculate with the vaccines.

In addition, the World Bank (WB) warned of the possibility of multimillion dollar economic losses in the case of a global epidemic, higher than those caused by the atypical pneumonia of 2003.

In that same year, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) caused some 800 deaths and cost an equivalent of 2% of Asia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Nevertheless, Milan Brahmbhatt, WB chief economist for East Asia and the Pacific, stated that the cost of an avian flu pandemic could reach $2 billion in one trimester and around $8 billion in 12 months.

So far, the slaughter of birds due to the presence of this disease has cost around 0.6% of the GDP of nations such as Thailand and Vietnam and 2% in the Philippines.

At the beginning of the month, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) warned that if this pandemic gains ground among humans, the economies of that continent will face damages of close to $2.8 billion in a one12-month period.

The institution declared that the avian flu constitutes 'a potential major challenge for the development of the region,' considered the most serious since the 1997 financial crisis derived from currency speculation.

If this situation takes on the characteristics of an epidemic, the disease will bring about a paralysis in Asia’s economic expansion and a severe contraction of trade, especially in the area of services.

In his turn, Wook affirmed that an avian flu epidemic could impact humans. Since 2003, more than 60 individuals have died from this virus.

Sub-types of the highly pathogenic flu, such as the H5N1 strain, could cause an epidemic leaving millions dead, the UN agency warned.

During a meeting of public and private bodies interested in drawing up strategies to eliminate the virus in birds, Wook insisted on the need for international cooperation.

He stated that it is unknown when an outbreak among people might occur, 'but we know it will happen.'

Samuel Jutzi, head of the Animal Production and Health Department of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), said that combating this disease demands a major commitment on the part of the international community.

'Halting this dangerous and devastating disease will require an enormous political commitment, large investments, coordinated international cooperation and strong action on the part of the affected countries.'

The European Union (EU) has announced that it will provide _30 million in 2006 to help combat the outbreak in Asia, the region most affected. Such small sums of aid to this continent will only contribute to 'the preparation and isolation of a pandemic threat.'

However, nothing can impede the H5N1 viral strain from mutating into a form transmittable among humans and that is where the danger lies.

A WB study presented as a sideline to the Geneva conference examining the statistics and projections of the major pandemics of the 20th century indicates that, in the United States alone, a pandemic could cause from 100,000-200,000 deaths and economic losses of up to $200 billion.

This projection also reveals that world-wide economic losses due to a human flu pandemic of avian origin could reach $800 billion; that is to say the equivalent of 2% or 3% of the gross world product.