7-10-08, 9:40 am
The buzz suggesting that Israel is considering a military attack on Iran refuses to recede. The buzz is designed to prepare public opinion for such an adventure. There is, of course, very little genuine discussion here in [Israel] of the fateful issues involved. There are a few “critical” voices but these are directed against excessive talk, and not against an attack, in and of itself.
A recent New York Times editorial suggested that Bush should learn from Olmert’s moderate initiatives, but the Times underestimates Olmert’s shrewdness. Olmert, who is pushing for an attack on Iran and Barak, who is still on the fence, are smart enough to appear reasonable and exercise temporary restraint. Israel hopes to avoid skirmishes and minor tensions in order to ready itself for a critical and decisive battle for the future of the entire Middle East. Despite hints of some moderaton, Israeli political commentators accurately identify Olmert as the leader of the pro-attack faction of the government. Olmert’s recent well publicized visit to the nuclear installation at Dimona this week is certainly not accidental. Nor is it accidental that the former Chief of Staff and currently deputy prime-minister Shaul Mofaz, who calls for an attack on Iran on every possible occasion, is Olmart’s most trusted lieutenant in the present internal party struggle. It works like this. Mofaz will do everything to keep Olmert in office despite the corruption mess, but if this doesn’t work out, Olmert will back Mofaz in the Kadima leadership contest.
The Case for Attacking Iran
Israel is the strongest regional power. It is the clear, if informal, leader of the coalition of the moderates, still wearing their Annapolis badges. Iran is the only possible other contender for regional hegemony and Israel can be certain of the stability of the pro-US coalition only as long as Iran does not reach nuclear parity with Israel. Whatever we think of the motivation, we have to weigh the possibilities in terms of how they appear to Olmert and Barak.
There is no reason to take comfort in recent indications that the Pentagon has decided against an attack this year. The powerful war camp in Israel does not see itself as constrained by Washington’s caution. On the contrary, the U.S. tendency to wait it out is interpreted in Jerusalem as sufficient cause for Israeli to step up to the challenge. And if Israel attacks, it is logical that it would ready its atomic weaponry as the ultimate deterrent when and if Iranian retaliation becomes unbearable.
We have no other explanation for what happened in Lebanon just two years ago than the Israeli obsession with the maintenance of its military superiority in the region – at any cost. The current buzz is a symptom of that obsession. You must also include the following consideration into Israeli calculations: The Israeli leaders are convinced that the United States will have no choice but to bail out Israel if things do not work out according to Israel’s plans. They may be right.
--Reuven Kaminer lives in Jerusalem.
